Riadi Salmi 0–3 FAR Rabat: Result & Stats

Riadi Salmi

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

FAR Rabat

11/30/2024

Botola Pro · Round 12Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Riadi Salmi27%

×Draw27%

FAR Rabat46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Riadi SalmiExpected goals in this matchFAR Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.37

Riadi Salmi

0.98

FAR Rabat

1.37

FAR Rabat creates 40% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 120 away

1.03

creates per match

1.40

1.34

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Riadi Salmi

1.03

FAR Rabat

1.40

allows per match

Riadi Salmi

1.34

FAR Rabat

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

FAR Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw

54%

Riadi Salmi or FAR Rabat

73%

Draw or FAR Rabat

73%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+

10%

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals

62%

Riadi Salmi 2+ goals

26%

Riadi Salmi 3+ goals

8%

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

75%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

40%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)

37%

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.03 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

FAR Rabat attack 1.40 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more

27%

level

27%

FAR Rabat scores more

46%

FAR Rabat at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff