FAR Rabat 3–1 Riadi Salmi: Result & Stats

FAR Rabat

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Riadi Salmi

5/28/2024

Botola Pro · Round 28Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

FAR Rabat51%

×Draw26%

Riadi Salmi23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAR RabatExpected goals in this matchRiadi Salmi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.92

FAR Rabat

1.53

Riadi Salmi

0.92

FAR Rabat creates 66% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 61 away

1.62

creates per match

0.97

0.86

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

FAR Rabat

1.62

Riadi Salmi

0.97

allows per match

FAR Rabat

0.86

Riadi Salmi

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Riadi Salmi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw

77%

FAR Rabat or Riadi Salmi

74%

Draw or Riadi Salmi

49%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

27%

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

78%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

45%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

20%

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals

60%

Riadi Salmi 2+ goals

23%

Riadi Salmi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

69%

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.62 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Riadi Salmi attack 0.97 + FAR Rabat defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FAR Rabat scores more

51%

level

26%

Riadi Salmi scores more

23%

FAR Rabat at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff