Riadi Salmi 4–1 Chabab RIF Hoceima: Result & Stats

Riadi Salmi

FT

4 – 1

Chabab RIF Hoceima

3/8/2020

Botola 2 · Round 22Terrain Errazi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Riadi Salmi55%

×Draw29%

Chabab RIF Hoceima15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Riadi SalmiExpected goals in this matchChabab RIF Hoceima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.53

Riadi Salmi

1.29

Chabab RIF Hoceima

0.53

Riadi Salmi creates 143% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 15 away

1.12

creates per match

0.47

0.60

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Riadi Salmi

1.12

Chabab RIF Hoceima

0.47

allows per match

Riadi Salmi

0.60

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw

85%

Riadi Salmi or Chabab RIF Hoceima

71%

Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima

45%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+

26%

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals

72%

Riadi Salmi 2+ goals

37%

Riadi Salmi 3+ goals

14%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals

41%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals

10%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)

78%

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.60 · 60 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.12 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.47 + Riadi Salmi defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more

55%

level

29%

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more

15%

Riadi Salmi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff