Chabab RIF Hoceima 1–0 Riadi Salmi: Result & Stats

Chabab RIF Hoceima

FT

1 – 0

Riadi Salmi

11/3/2019

Botola 2 · Round 7Stade Mimoun Al Arsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima37%

×Draw28%

Riadi Salmi35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chabab RIF HoceimaExpected goals in this matchRiadi Salmi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.14

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.19

Riadi Salmi

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

1.13

creates per match

1.07

1.20

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.13

Riadi Salmi

1.07

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima

1.20

Riadi Salmi

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Riadi Salmi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw

65%

Chabab RIF Hoceima or Riadi Salmi

72%

Draw or Riadi Salmi

63%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+

16%

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals

70%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals

33%

Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals

12%

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals

68%

Riadi Salmi 2+ goals

32%

Riadi Salmi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)

52%

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.13 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Riadi Salmi attack 1.07 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more

37%

level

28%

Riadi Salmi scores more

35%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff