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Progresso vs Nacional de Benguela — Girabola 2012

Progresso
Progresso
FT
0 – 0
Nacional de Benguela
Nacional de Benguela
3/11/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 2Estádio Cidade Universitária

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Progresso39%
×Draw35%
Nacional de Benguela26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresso
0.91
Nacional de Benguela
0.68

Progresso creates 34% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 5 away

creates per match

Progresso
1.02
Nacional de Benguela
0.20

allows per match

Progresso
1.16
Nacional de Benguela
0.80

finishing

Progresso+0.00on par
Nacional de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresso ↓

Nacional de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Progresso or draw
74%
Progresso or Nacional de Benguela
65%
Draw or Nacional de Benguela
61%

Winning margin

Progresso wins by 2+
14%
Nacional de Benguela wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Progresso 1+ goals
60%
Progresso 2+ goals
23%
Progresso 3+ goals
6%
Nacional de Benguela 1+ goals
49%
Nacional de Benguela 2+ goals
15%
Nacional de Benguela 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Progresso (draw refunded)
60%
Nacional de Benguela (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresso at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

Nacional de Benguela away — creates 0.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresso attack 1.02 + Nacional de Benguela defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.91

Nacional de Benguela attack 0.20 + Progresso defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Progresso scores more
39%
level
35%
Nacional de Benguela scores more
26%

Progresso at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Progresso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Progresso 0–0 Nacional de Benguela

Progresso and Nacional de Benguela drew 0-0 in Girabola on March 11, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio Cidade Universitária.