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Nacional de Benguela vs Progresso — Girabola 2019

Nacional de Benguela
Nacional de Benguela
FT
2 – 1
Progresso
Progresso
7/14/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 17Estádio de São Filipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nacional de Benguela53%
×Draw25%
Progresso21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nacional de Benguela
1.57
Progresso
0.89

Nacional de Benguela creates 76% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 53 away

creates per match

Nacional de Benguela
1.40
Progresso
0.57

allows per match

Nacional de Benguela
1.20
Progresso
1.74

finishing

Nacional de Benguela+0.00on par
Progresso+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional de Benguela ↓

Progresso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nacional de Benguela or draw
79%
Nacional de Benguela or Progresso
75%
Draw or Progresso
47%

Winning margin

Nacional de Benguela wins by 2+
28%
Progresso wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nacional de Benguela 1+ goals
79%
Nacional de Benguela 2+ goals
46%
Nacional de Benguela 3+ goals
21%
Progresso 1+ goals
59%
Progresso 2+ goals
22%
Progresso 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nacional de Benguela (draw refunded)
71%
Progresso (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional de Benguela at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Progresso away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional de Benguela attack 1.40 + Progresso defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Progresso attack 0.57 + Nacional de Benguela defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nacional de Benguela scores more
53%
level
25%
Progresso scores more
21%

Nacional de Benguela at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nacional de Benguela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Nacional de Benguela 2–1 Progresso

Nacional de Benguela beat Progresso 2-1 in Girabola on July 14, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio de São Filipe.