Ri 3 Corrales 1–0 Ovetense FC: Result & Stats

Ri 3 Corrales

FT

1 – 0

Ovetense FC

5/20/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 11Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ri 3 Corrales50%

×Draw26%

Ovetense FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ri 3 CorralesExpected goals in this matchOvetense FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.00

Ri 3 Corrales

1.54

Ovetense FC

1.00

Ri 3 Corrales creates 54% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.37

creates per match

0.90

1.10

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Ri 3 Corrales

1.37

Ovetense FC

0.90

allows per match

Ri 3 Corrales

1.10

Ovetense FC

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ri 3 Corrales+0.00on par

Ovetense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ri 3 Corrales ↓

Ovetense FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ri 3 Corrales or draw

75%

Ri 3 Corrales or Ovetense FC

74%

Draw or Ovetense FC

50%

Winning margin

Ri 3 Corrales wins by 2+

26%

Ovetense FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ri 3 Corrales 1+ goals

79%

Ri 3 Corrales 2+ goals

45%

Ri 3 Corrales 3+ goals

20%

Ovetense FC 1+ goals

63%

Ovetense FC 2+ goals

26%

Ovetense FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ri 3 Corrales (draw refunded)

67%

Ovetense FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ri 3 Corrales at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Ovetense FC away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ri 3 Corrales attack 1.37 + Ovetense FC defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ovetense FC attack 0.90 + Ri 3 Corrales defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ri 3 Corrales scores more

50%

level

26%

Ovetense FC scores more

25%

Ri 3 Corrales at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ri 3 Corrales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff