Ovetense FC 2–0 Ri 3 Corrales: Result & Stats

Ovetense FC

FT

2 – 0

Ri 3 Corrales

8/25/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 26Estadio Ovetenses Unidos (Coronel Oviedo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ovetense FC42%

×Draw29%

Ri 3 Corrales29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ovetense FCExpected goals in this matchRi 3 Corrales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.94

Ovetense FC

1.19

Ri 3 Corrales

0.94

Ovetense FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.00

creates per match

0.97

0.90

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Ovetense FC

1.00

Ri 3 Corrales

0.97

allows per match

Ovetense FC

0.90

Ri 3 Corrales

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ovetense FC+0.00on par

Ri 3 Corrales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ovetense FC ↓

Ri 3 Corrales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ovetense FC or draw

71%

Ovetense FC or Ri 3 Corrales

71%

Draw or Ri 3 Corrales

58%

Winning margin

Ovetense FC wins by 2+

18%

Ri 3 Corrales wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ovetense FC 1+ goals

70%

Ovetense FC 2+ goals

33%

Ovetense FC 3+ goals

12%

Ri 3 Corrales 1+ goals

61%

Ri 3 Corrales 2+ goals

24%

Ri 3 Corrales 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ovetense FC (draw refunded)

59%

Ri 3 Corrales (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ovetense FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Ri 3 Corrales away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ovetense FC attack 1.00 + Ri 3 Corrales defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ri 3 Corrales attack 0.97 + Ovetense FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ovetense FC scores more

42%

level

29%

Ri 3 Corrales scores more

29%

Ovetense FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ovetense FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff