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Ri 3 Corrales vs Fernando De La Mora — Division Intermedia 2018

Ri 3 Corrales
Ri 3 Corrales
FT
3 – 3
Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
8/8/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 23Estadio Tres Corrales (Tres Corrales)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ri 3 Corrales41%
×Draw27%
Fernando De La Mora32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ri 3 Corrales
1.32
Fernando De La Mora
1.13

Ri 3 Corrales creates 17% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 113 away

creates per match

Ri 3 Corrales
1.37
Fernando De La Mora
1.16

allows per match

Ri 3 Corrales
1.10
Fernando De La Mora
1.27

finishing

Ri 3 Corrales+0.00on par
Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ri 3 Corrales ↓

Fernando De La Mora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ri 3 Corrales or draw
68%
Ri 3 Corrales or Fernando De La Mora
73%
Draw or Fernando De La Mora
59%

Winning margin

Ri 3 Corrales wins by 2+
19%
Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ri 3 Corrales 1+ goals
73%
Ri 3 Corrales 2+ goals
38%
Ri 3 Corrales 3+ goals
15%
Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
68%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
31%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ri 3 Corrales (draw refunded)
56%
Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ri 3 Corrales at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Fernando De La Mora away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ri 3 Corrales attack 1.37 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.16 + Ri 3 Corrales defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ri 3 Corrales scores more
41%
level
27%
Fernando De La Mora scores more
32%

Ri 3 Corrales at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ri 3 Corrales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Ri 3 Corrales 3–3 Fernando De La Mora

Ri 3 Corrales and Fernando De La Mora drew 3-3 in Division Intermedia on August 8, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Tres Corrales (Tres Corrales).