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Fernando De La Mora vs Ri 3 Corrales — Division Intermedia 2018

Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
FT
2 – 2
Ri 3 Corrales
Ri 3 Corrales
9/1/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 19Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi (Fernando de la Mora)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Fernando De La Mora45%
×Draw28%
Ri 3 Corrales27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernando De La Mora
1.34
Ri 3 Corrales
0.98

Fernando De La Mora creates 37% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 30 away

creates per match

Fernando De La Mora
1.31
Ri 3 Corrales
0.97

allows per match

Fernando De La Mora
0.99
Ri 3 Corrales
1.37

finishing

Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par
Ri 3 Corrales+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernando De La Mora ↓

Ri 3 Corrales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fernando De La Mora or draw
73%
Fernando De La Mora or Ri 3 Corrales
72%
Draw or Ri 3 Corrales
55%

Winning margin

Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
21%
Ri 3 Corrales wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
74%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
39%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
15%
Ri 3 Corrales 1+ goals
62%
Ri 3 Corrales 2+ goals
26%
Ri 3 Corrales 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
62%
Ri 3 Corrales (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernando De La Mora at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 115 matches

Ri 3 Corrales away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.31 + Ri 3 Corrales defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ri 3 Corrales attack 0.97 + Fernando De La Mora defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fernando De La Mora scores more
45%
level
28%
Ri 3 Corrales scores more
27%

Fernando De La Mora at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fernando De La Mora 2 – 2 Ri 3 Corrales

Fernando De La Mora and Ri 3 Corrales drew 2-2 in Division Intermedia on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi (Fernando de la Mora).