Rheindorf Altach II 2–4 Kitzbühel: Result & Stats

Rheindorf Altach II

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Kitzbühel

D. Maksimovic 70'

J. Schmidt 32' (OG)

K. D'Almeida 90+3'

A. Wörndl 82'

R. Kogler 18'

J. Michlík 7'

8/10/2024

Regionalliga - West · West - 2CASHPOINT Arena Nebenplatz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Rheindorf Altach II34%

×Draw24%

Kitzbühel43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rheindorf Altach IIExpected goals in this matchKitzbühel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.68

Rheindorf Altach II

1.46

Kitzbühel

1.68

Kitzbühel creates 15% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 29 away

1.43

creates per match

1.45

1.91

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Rheindorf Altach II

1.43

Kitzbühel

1.45

allows per match

Rheindorf Altach II

1.91

Kitzbühel

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rheindorf Altach II+0.00on par

Kitzbühel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rheindorf Altach II ↓

Kitzbühel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Rheindorf Altach II or draw

57%

Rheindorf Altach II or Kitzbühel

76%

Draw or Kitzbühel

66%

Winning margin

Rheindorf Altach II wins by 2+

15%

Kitzbühel wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Rheindorf Altach II 1+ goals

77%

Rheindorf Altach II 2+ goals

43%

Rheindorf Altach II 3+ goals

18%

Kitzbühel 1+ goals

81%

Kitzbühel 2+ goals

50%

Kitzbühel 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Rheindorf Altach II (draw refunded)

44%

Kitzbühel (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rheindorf Altach II at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Kitzbühel away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rheindorf Altach II attack 1.43 + Kitzbühel defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kitzbühel attack 1.45 + Rheindorf Altach II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rheindorf Altach II scores more

34%

level

24%

Kitzbühel scores more

43%

Kitzbühel at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kitzbühel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. Michlík

18'

R. Kogler

32'

J. SchmidtOwn goal

46'

K. D'Almeida← L. Ritter

70'

D. Maksimovic

73'

J. Asante← J. Schmidt

79'

S. Almberger← J. Michlík

82'

A. Wörndl

83'

M. Schnider← Danso Djana

85'

S. Feichtner← T. Feichtner

90'

A. Ademi← J. Maldoner

90+3'

K. D'Almeida

Rheindorf

Kitzbühel

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Michlík

Sagno

🥅

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: L. Ngwat-Mahop

83'▲M. Schnider←▼Danso Djana

90'▲A. Ademi←▼J. Maldoner

Rheindorf Altach II substitutes

SchniderAdemiKurtPetrovicMuslioski

Manager: P. Schneeberger

46'▲K. D'Almeida←▼L. Ritter

73'▲J. Asante←▼J. Schmidt

79'▲S. Almberger←▼J. Michlík

85'▲S. Feichtner←▼T. Feichtner

Kitzbühel substitutes

D'AlmeidaAsanteAlmbergerFeichtnerPenkovetsBachler