Kitzbühel 0–1 Rheindorf Altach II: Result & Stats

Kitzbühel

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rheindorf Altach II

5/18/2019

Regionalliga - West · Round 27Sportplatz Langau (Kitzbühel)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kitzbühel51%

×Draw24%

Rheindorf Altach II25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KitzbühelExpected goals in this matchRheindorf Altach II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.09

Kitzbühel

1.66

Rheindorf Altach II

1.09

Kitzbühel creates 52% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

1.15

creates per match

1.04

1.15

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Kitzbühel

1.15

Rheindorf Altach II

1.04

allows per match

Kitzbühel

1.15

Rheindorf Altach II

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kitzbühel+0.00on par

Rheindorf Altach II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitzbühel ↓

Rheindorf Altach II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kitzbühel or draw

75%

Kitzbühel or Rheindorf Altach II

76%

Draw or Rheindorf Altach II

49%

Winning margin

Kitzbühel wins by 2+

27%

Rheindorf Altach II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kitzbühel 1+ goals

81%

Kitzbühel 2+ goals

49%

Kitzbühel 3+ goals

23%

Rheindorf Altach II 1+ goals

66%

Rheindorf Altach II 2+ goals

30%

Rheindorf Altach II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kitzbühel (draw refunded)

67%

Rheindorf Altach II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitzbühel at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Rheindorf Altach II away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitzbühel attack 1.15 + Rheindorf Altach II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.66

Rheindorf Altach II attack 1.04 + Kitzbühel defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kitzbühel scores more

51%

level

24%

Rheindorf Altach II scores more

25%

Kitzbühel at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kitzbühel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff