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RFK Novi Sad vs Radnički Zrenjanin — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
5 – 1
Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
8/31/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 3Stadion na Detelinari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RFK Novi Sad65%
×Draw19%
Radnički Zrenjanin16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
2.29
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.04

RFK Novi Sad creates 120% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 87 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
2.80
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.08

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.00
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.78

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Radnički Zrenjanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
84%
RFK Novi Sad or Radnički Zrenjanin
81%
Draw or Radnički Zrenjanin
35%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
42%
Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
90%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
66%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
40%
Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
65%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
28%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
80%
Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Radnički Zrenjanin away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 2.80 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.29

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.08 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
65%
level
19%
Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
16%

RFK Novi Sad at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RFK Novi Sad vs Radnički Zrenjanin

RFK Novi Sad beat Radnički Zrenjanin 5-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion na Detelinari in Novi Sad.