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RFK Novi Sad vs Radnički Novi Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
8/13/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 2Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

RFK Novi Sad52%
×Draw25%
Radnički Novi Beograd24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
1.65
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.04

RFK Novi Sad creates 59% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 38 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Radnički Novi Beograd
0.76

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Radnički Novi Beograd
1.97

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Radnički Novi Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
76%
RFK Novi Sad or Radnički Novi Beograd
75%
Draw or Radnički Novi Beograd
48%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
28%
Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
81%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
49%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
23%
Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
65%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
28%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
68%
Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Radnički Novi Beograd away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.33 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.65

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.76 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
52%
level
25%
Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
24%

RFK Novi Sad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RFK Novi Sad vs Radnički Novi Beograd

RFK Novi Sad and Radnički Novi Beograd drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Pivara Stadion in Čelarevo.