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Radnički Novi Beograd vs RFK Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Radnički Novi Beograd
Radnički Novi Beograd
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
11/17/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 17Stadion FK Radnički Beograd

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Radnički Novi Beograd53%
×Draw24%
RFK Novi Sad23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnički Novi Beograd
1.66
RFK Novi Sad
1.01

Radnički Novi Beograd creates 64% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Radnički Novi Beograd
0.97
RFK Novi Sad
0.83

allows per match

Radnički Novi Beograd
1.19
RFK Novi Sad
2.35

finishing

Radnički Novi Beograd+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnički Novi Beograd ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Radnički Novi Beograd or draw
77%
Radnički Novi Beograd or RFK Novi Sad
76%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
47%

Winning margin

Radnički Novi Beograd wins by 2+
28%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Radnički Novi Beograd 1+ goals
81%
Radnički Novi Beograd 2+ goals
49%
Radnički Novi Beograd 3+ goals
23%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
64%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
27%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Radnički Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
70%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnički Novi Beograd at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnički Novi Beograd attack 0.97 + RFK Novi Sad defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.66

RFK Novi Sad attack 0.83 + Radnički Novi Beograd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Radnički Novi Beograd scores more
53%
level
24%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
23%

Radnički Novi Beograd at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Radnički Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnički Novi Beograd vs RFK Novi Sad

Radnički Novi Beograd beat RFK Novi Sad 3-1 in Prva Liga on November 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Radnički Beograd in Beograd.