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RFK Novi Sad vs Omladinac NB — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
4/12/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 21Stadion na Detelinari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RFK Novi Sad58%
×Draw22%
Omladinac NB20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
1.95
Omladinac NB
1.04

RFK Novi Sad creates 88% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 103 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
2.80
Omladinac NB
1.09

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.00
Omladinac NB
1.10

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Omladinac NB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
80%
RFK Novi Sad or Omladinac NB
78%
Draw or Omladinac NB
42%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
35%
Omladinac NB wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
86%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
58%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
31%
Omladinac NB 1+ goals
65%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
28%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
75%
Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 2.80 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.95

Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
58%
level
22%
Omladinac NB scores more
20%

RFK Novi Sad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: RFK Novi Sad 2–1 Omladinac NB

RFK Novi Sad beat Omladinac NB 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion na Detelinari in Novi Sad.