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Omladinac NB vs RFK Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Omladinac NB
Omladinac NB
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
9/22/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 6Stadion FK Omladinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Omladinac NB53%
×Draw23%
RFK Novi Sad24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omladinac NB
1.77
RFK Novi Sad
1.11

Omladinac NB creates 59% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

creates per match

Omladinac NB
1.61
RFK Novi Sad
1.07

allows per match

Omladinac NB
1.15
RFK Novi Sad
1.93

finishing

Omladinac NB+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omladinac NB ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Omladinac NB or draw
76%
Omladinac NB or RFK Novi Sad
77%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
47%

Winning margin

Omladinac NB wins by 2+
29%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Omladinac NB 1+ goals
83%
Omladinac NB 2+ goals
53%
Omladinac NB 3+ goals
26%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
67%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
30%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)
69%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omladinac NB at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 101 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omladinac NB attack 1.61 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.07 + Omladinac NB defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Omladinac NB scores more
53%
level
23%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
24%

Omladinac NB at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Omladinac NB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Omladinac NB vs RFK Novi Sad

Omladinac NB beat RFK Novi Sad 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Omladinac in Novi Banovci.