Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

RFK Novi Sad vs OFK Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd
2/25/2024Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 21Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

RFK Novi Sad35%
×Draw26%
OFK Beograd39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
1.29
OFK Beograd
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
OFK Beograd
1.45

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
OFK Beograd
1.25

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
OFK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

OFK Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
61%
RFK Novi Sad or OFK Beograd
74%
Draw or OFK Beograd
65%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
15%
OFK Beograd wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
72%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
37%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
14%
OFK Beograd 1+ goals
75%
OFK Beograd 2+ goals
40%
OFK Beograd 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
47%
OFK Beograd (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

OFK Beograd away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.33 + OFK Beograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

OFK Beograd attack 1.45 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
35%
level
26%
OFK Beograd scores more
39%

OFK Beograd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "OFK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: RFK Novi Sad 1–0 OFK Beograd

RFK Novi Sad beat OFK Beograd 1-0 in Prva Liga on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Pivara Stadion in Čelarevo.