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OFK Beograd vs RFK Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
9/10/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 6Omladinski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

OFK Beograd67%
×Draw20%
RFK Novi Sad13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Beograd
2.02
RFK Novi Sad
0.76

OFK Beograd creates 166% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

creates per match

OFK Beograd
1.70
RFK Novi Sad
0.83

allows per match

OFK Beograd
0.70
RFK Novi Sad
2.35

finishing

OFK Beograd+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Beograd ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

OFK Beograd or draw
87%
OFK Beograd or RFK Novi Sad
80%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
33%

Winning margin

OFK Beograd wins by 2+
42%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

OFK Beograd 1+ goals
87%
OFK Beograd 2+ goals
60%
OFK Beograd 3+ goals
33%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
53%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
18%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

OFK Beograd (draw refunded)
84%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Beograd at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Beograd attack 1.70 + RFK Novi Sad defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.02

RFK Novi Sad attack 0.83 + OFK Beograd defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

OFK Beograd scores more
67%
level
20%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
13%

OFK Beograd at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "OFK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: OFK Beograd 4–1 RFK Novi Sad

OFK Beograd beat RFK Novi Sad 4-1 in Prva Liga on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Omladinski Stadion in Beograd.