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RFK Novi Sad vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mladost Novi Sad
Mladost Novi Sad
10/9/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 11Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

RFK Novi Sad33%
×Draw29%
Mladost Novi Sad38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
1.06
Mladost Novi Sad
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 55 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Mladost Novi Sad
0.98

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Mladost Novi Sad
0.78

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
62%
RFK Novi Sad or Mladost Novi Sad
71%
Draw or Mladost Novi Sad
67%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
13%
Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
65%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
29%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
9%
Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals
69%
Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals
32%
Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
46%
Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.33 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.06

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
33%
level
29%
Mladost Novi Sad scores more
38%

Mladost Novi Sad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RFK Novi Sad vs Mladost Novi Sad

RFK Novi Sad beat Mladost Novi Sad 3-1 in Prva Liga on October 9, 2023.

The match was played at Pivara Stadion in Čelarevo.