Mladost Novi Sad 0–1 RFK Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Mladost Novi Sad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

RFK Novi Sad

3/24/2024

Prva Liga · Round 26GAT Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mladost Novi Sad60%

×Draw23%

RFK Novi Sad17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost Novi SadExpected goals in this matchRFK Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.86

Mladost Novi Sad

1.82

RFK Novi Sad

0.86

Mladost Novi Sad creates 112% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 23 away

1.29

creates per match

0.83

0.89

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Mladost Novi Sad

1.29

RFK Novi Sad

0.83

allows per match

Mladost Novi Sad

0.89

RFK Novi Sad

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Novi Sad ↓

RFK Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mladost Novi Sad or draw

83%

Mladost Novi Sad or RFK Novi Sad

77%

Draw or RFK Novi Sad

40%

Winning margin

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

35%

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

84%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

54%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

27%

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals

58%

RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals

21%

RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

78%

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Novi Sad at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 56 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.29 + RFK Novi Sad defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.82

RFK Novi Sad attack 0.83 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

60%

level

23%

RFK Novi Sad scores more

17%

Mladost Novi Sad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs RFK Novi Sad

RFK Novi Sad beat Mladost Novi Sad 1-0 in Prva Liga on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at GAT Arena in Novi Sad.

Mladost Novi Sad vs RFK Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mladost Novi Sad vs RFK Novi Sad