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RFK Novi Sad vs Jedinstvo Ub — Prva Liga 2018

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
11/12/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 16Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

RFK Novi Sad40%
×Draw27%
Jedinstvo Ub33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
1.34
Jedinstvo Ub
1.19

RFK Novi Sad creates 13% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 55 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Jedinstvo Ub
1.05

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.33
Jedinstvo Ub
1.35

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Jedinstvo Ub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
67%
RFK Novi Sad or Jedinstvo Ub
73%
Draw or Jedinstvo Ub
60%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
18%
Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
74%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
39%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
15%
Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
70%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
33%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
55%
Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Jedinstvo Ub away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.33 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.34

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.05 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
40%
level
27%
Jedinstvo Ub scores more
33%

RFK Novi Sad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RFK Novi Sad vs Jedinstvo Ub

Jedinstvo Ub beat RFK Novi Sad 2-0 in Prva Liga on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Pivara Stadion in Čelarevo.