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Jedinstvo Ub vs RFK Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
4/21/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Championship Round - 1Stadion Dragan Dzajic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub61%
×Draw21%
RFK Novi Sad17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Ub
1.96
RFK Novi Sad
0.93

Jedinstvo Ub creates 111% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 23 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.56
RFK Novi Sad
0.83

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.02
RFK Novi Sad
2.35

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw
83%
Jedinstvo Ub or RFK Novi Sad
79%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
39%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
37%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
86%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
58%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
31%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
61%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
24%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
78%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.56 + RFK Novi Sad defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.96

RFK Novi Sad attack 0.83 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more
61%
level
21%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
17%

Jedinstvo Ub at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Jedinstvo Ub 3–0 RFK Novi Sad

Jedinstvo Ub beat RFK Novi Sad 3-0 in Prva Liga on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Dzajic in Ub.