Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

RFK Novi Sad vs Hajduk Divoš — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hajduk Divoš
Hajduk Divoš
11/9/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 12Stadion na Detelinari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RFK Novi Sad55%
×Draw23%
Hajduk Divoš22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RFK Novi Sad
1.83
Hajduk Divoš
1.06

RFK Novi Sad creates 73% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad
2.80
Hajduk Divoš
1.13

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad
1.00
Hajduk Divoš
0.87

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par
Hajduk Divoš+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Hajduk Divoš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw
78%
RFK Novi Sad or Hajduk Divoš
77%
Draw or Hajduk Divoš
45%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
31%
Hajduk Divoš wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
84%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
54%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
28%
Hajduk Divoš 1+ goals
65%
Hajduk Divoš 2+ goals
29%
Hajduk Divoš 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
72%
Hajduk Divoš (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Hajduk Divoš away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 2.80 + Hajduk Divoš defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hajduk Divoš attack 1.13 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more
55%
level
23%
Hajduk Divoš scores more
22%

RFK Novi Sad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: RFK Novi Sad 0–1 Hajduk Divoš

Hajduk Divoš beat RFK Novi Sad 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion na Detelinari in Novi Sad.