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Hajduk Divoš vs RFK Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Hajduk Divoš
Hajduk Divoš
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
5/18/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 27Stadion FK Hajduk Divoš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hajduk Divoš57%
×Draw23%
RFK Novi Sad20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajduk Divoš
1.85
RFK Novi Sad
0.99

Hajduk Divoš creates 87% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hajduk Divoš
1.77
RFK Novi Sad
1.07

allows per match

Hajduk Divoš
0.90
RFK Novi Sad
1.93

finishing

Hajduk Divoš+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajduk Divoš ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hajduk Divoš or draw
80%
Hajduk Divoš or RFK Novi Sad
77%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
43%

Winning margin

Hajduk Divoš wins by 2+
33%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hajduk Divoš 1+ goals
84%
Hajduk Divoš 2+ goals
55%
Hajduk Divoš 3+ goals
28%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
63%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
26%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hajduk Divoš (draw refunded)
74%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajduk Divoš at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajduk Divoš attack 1.77 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.85

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.07 + Hajduk Divoš defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hajduk Divoš scores more
57%
level
23%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
20%

Hajduk Divoš at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hajduk Divoš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajduk Divoš vs RFK Novi Sad

Hajduk Divoš beat RFK Novi Sad 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Hajduk Divoš in Divoš.