RFK Novi Sad 2–2 Grafičar: Result & Stats

RFK Novi Sad

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Grafičar

9/3/2023

Prva Liga · Round 5Pivara Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

RFK Novi Sad40%

×Draw26%

Grafičar34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RFK Novi SadExpected goals in this matchGrafičar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.23

RFK Novi Sad

1.35

Grafičar

1.23

RFK Novi Sad creates 10% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 125 away

1.33

creates per match

1.14

1.33

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

RFK Novi Sad

1.33

Grafičar

1.14

allows per match

RFK Novi Sad

1.33

Grafičar

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Grafičar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RFK Novi Sad ↓

Grafičar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

RFK Novi Sad or draw

66%

RFK Novi Sad or Grafičar

74%

Draw or Grafičar

60%

Winning margin

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+

18%

Grafičar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals

74%

RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals

39%

RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals

15%

Grafičar 1+ goals

71%

Grafičar 2+ goals

35%

Grafičar 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)

54%

Grafičar (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RFK Novi Sad at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Grafičar away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.33 + Grafičar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Grafičar attack 1.14 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

RFK Novi Sad scores more

40%

level

26%

Grafičar scores more

34%

RFK Novi Sad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "RFK Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff