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Grafičar vs RFK Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Grafičar
Grafičar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
5/12/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Championship Round - 5Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Grafičar64%
×Draw21%
RFK Novi Sad16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grafičar
2.05
RFK Novi Sad
0.91

Grafičar creates 125% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 23 away

creates per match

Grafičar
1.75
RFK Novi Sad
0.83

allows per match

Grafičar
0.98
RFK Novi Sad
2.35

finishing

Grafičar+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grafičar ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Grafičar or draw
84%
Grafičar or RFK Novi Sad
79%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
36%

Winning margin

Grafičar wins by 2+
39%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Grafičar 1+ goals
87%
Grafičar 2+ goals
61%
Grafičar 3+ goals
33%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
60%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
23%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Grafičar (draw refunded)
80%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grafičar attack 1.75 + RFK Novi Sad defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.05

RFK Novi Sad attack 0.83 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Grafičar scores more
64%
level
21%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
16%

Grafičar at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grafičar vs RFK Novi Sad

Grafičar beat RFK Novi Sad 2-0 in Prva Liga on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava in Beograd.