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Rēzekne FA vs Lokomotiv Daugavpils — 1. Liga 2026

Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
FT
1 – 3
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
7/4/20201. Liga1. Liga · Round 1Sporta Aģentūras Stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rēzekne FA17%
×Draw17%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rēzekne FA
1.40
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
2.80

Lokomotiv Daugavpils creates 100% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rēzekne FA
1.63
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
3.50

allows per match

Rēzekne FA
2.11
Lokomotiv Daugavpils
1.17

finishing

Rēzekne FA+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Daugavpils+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rēzekne FA ↓

Lokomotiv Daugavpils →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Rēzekne FA or draw
34%
Rēzekne FA or Lokomotiv Daugavpils
83%
Draw or Lokomotiv Daugavpils
83%

Winning margin

Rēzekne FA wins by 2+
7%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Rēzekne FA 1+ goals
75%
Rēzekne FA 2+ goals
41%
Rēzekne FA 3+ goals
17%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 1+ goals
94%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2+ goals
76%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Rēzekne FA (draw refunded)
21%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rēzekne FA at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.11 · 88 matches

Lokomotiv Daugavpils away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rēzekne FA attack 1.63 + Lokomotiv Daugavpils defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Lokomotiv Daugavpils attack 3.50 + Rēzekne FA defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rēzekne FA scores more
17%
level
17%
Lokomotiv Daugavpils scores more
66%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lokomotiv Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga: Rēzekne FA 1–3 Lokomotiv Daugavpils

Lokomotiv Daugavpils beat Rēzekne FA 3-1 in 1. Liga on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at Sporta Aģentūras Stadions in Rezekne.