Lokomotiv Daugavpils 5–1 Rēzekne FA: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv Daugavpils

FT

5 – 1

Rēzekne FA

D. Kozlov 90+1'

A. Yerkin 80' (pen), 50'

A. Fertovs 38'

A. Sinelnikovs 16'

D. Berjoza 25'

9/12/2020

1. Liga · Round 10Stadions Celtnieks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lokomotiv Daugavpils82%

×Draw12%

Rēzekne FA6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv DaugavpilsExpected goals in this matchRēzekne FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

0.76

Lokomotiv Daugavpils

3.06

Rēzekne FA

0.76

Lokomotiv Daugavpils creates 303% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 84 away

3.00

creates per match

1.01

0.50

allows per match

3.12

creates per match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils

3.00

Rēzekne FA

1.01

allows per match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils

0.50

Rēzekne FA

3.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Daugavpils+0.00on par

Rēzekne FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Daugavpils ↓

Rēzekne FA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Daugavpils or draw

94%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils or Rēzekne FA

88%

Draw or Rēzekne FA

18%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Daugavpils wins by 2+

63%

Rēzekne FA wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Daugavpils 1+ goals

95%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils 2+ goals

80%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils 3+ goals

57%

Rēzekne FA 1+ goals

53%

Rēzekne FA 2+ goals

18%

Rēzekne FA 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Daugavpils (draw refunded)

93%

Rēzekne FA (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Rēzekne FA away — creates 1.01, concedes 3.12 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Daugavpils attack 3.00 + Rēzekne FA defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 3.06

Rēzekne FA attack 1.01 + Lokomotiv Daugavpils defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Lokomotiv Daugavpils scores more

82%

level

12%

Rēzekne FA scores more

6%

Lokomotiv Daugavpils at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Lokomotiv Daugavpils will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. Sinelnikovs

25'

D. Berjoza

38'

A. Fertovs

50'

A. Yerkin

66'

D. Berjoza

66'

D. Berjoza

80'

A. YerkinPenalty

90+1'

D. Kozlov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff