Rēzekne FA 2–1 Beitar: Result & Stats | 1. Liga

Rēzekne FA

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Beitar

11/12/2023

1. Liga · Round 26OC Rēzekne Mākslīgais Laukums

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rēzekne FA48%

×Draw20%

Beitar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rēzekne FAExpected goals in this matchBeitar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.85

Rēzekne FA

2.31

Beitar

1.85

Rēzekne FA creates 25% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 13 away

1.78

creates per match

1.62

2.08

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Rēzekne FA

1.78

Beitar

1.62

allows per match

Rēzekne FA

2.08

Beitar

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rēzekne FA+0.00on par

Beitar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rēzekne FA ↓

Beitar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Rēzekne FA or draw

68%

Rēzekne FA or Beitar

80%

Draw or Beitar

52%

Winning margin

Rēzekne FA wins by 2+

29%

Beitar wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rēzekne FA 1+ goals

90%

Rēzekne FA 2+ goals

67%

Rēzekne FA 3+ goals

40%

Beitar 1+ goals

84%

Beitar 2+ goals

55%

Beitar 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Rēzekne FA (draw refunded)

61%

Beitar (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rēzekne FA at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.08 · 90 matches

Beitar away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rēzekne FA attack 1.78 + Beitar defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.31

Beitar attack 1.62 + Rēzekne FA defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rēzekne FA scores more

48%

level

20%

Beitar scores more

32%

Rēzekne FA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rēzekne FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff