Beitar 1–1 Rēzekne FA: Result & Stats | 1. Liga

Beitar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rēzekne FA

7/30/2023

1. Liga · Round 13Salaspils sporta nama stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Beitar50%

×Draw20%

Rēzekne FA30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeitarExpected goals in this matchRēzekne FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.83

Beitar

2.37

Rēzekne FA

1.83

Beitar creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 87 away

1.67

creates per match

1.24

2.42

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Beitar

1.67

Rēzekne FA

1.24

allows per match

Beitar

2.42

Rēzekne FA

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beitar+0.00on par

Rēzekne FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beitar ↓

Rēzekne FA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Beitar or draw

70%

Beitar or Rēzekne FA

80%

Draw or Rēzekne FA

50%

Winning margin

Beitar wins by 2+

30%

Rēzekne FA wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Beitar 1+ goals

91%

Beitar 2+ goals

68%

Beitar 3+ goals

42%

Rēzekne FA 1+ goals

84%

Rēzekne FA 2+ goals

54%

Rēzekne FA 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Beitar (draw refunded)

62%

Rēzekne FA (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beitar at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

Rēzekne FA away — creates 1.24, concedes 3.06 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beitar attack 1.67 + Rēzekne FA defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.37

Rēzekne FA attack 1.24 + Beitar defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Beitar scores more

50%

level

20%

Rēzekne FA scores more

30%

Beitar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Beitar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff