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Rēzekne FA vs Balvu — 1. Liga 2026

Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
FT
5 – 1
Balvu
Balvu
4/21/20181. Liga1. Liga · Round 1OC Rēzekne Mākslīgais Laukums (Rēzekne)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Rēzekne FA80%
×Draw11%
Balvu9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rēzekne FA
4.19
Balvu
1.49

Rēzekne FA creates 181% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 20 away

creates per match

Rēzekne FA
1.78
Balvu
0.90

allows per match

Rēzekne FA
2.08
Balvu
6.60

finishing

Rēzekne FA+0.00on par
Balvu+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rēzekne FA ↓

Balvu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–12%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–18%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Rēzekne FA or draw
91%
Rēzekne FA or Balvu
89%
Draw or Balvu
20%

Winning margin

Rēzekne FA wins by 2+
64%
Balvu wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rēzekne FA 1+ goals
98%
Rēzekne FA 2+ goals
91%
Rēzekne FA 3+ goals
76%
Balvu 1+ goals
77%
Balvu 2+ goals
44%
Balvu 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rēzekne FA (draw refunded)
90%
Balvu (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rēzekne FA at home — creates 1.78, concedes 2.08 · 90 matches

Balvu away — creates 0.90, concedes 6.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rēzekne FA attack 1.78 + Balvu defence 6.60 → ÷2 → 4.19

Balvu attack 0.90 + Rēzekne FA defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Rēzekne FA scores more
80%
level
11%
Balvu scores more
9%

Rēzekne FA at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Rēzekne FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rēzekne FA vs Balvu

Rēzekne FA beat Balvu 5-1 in 1. Liga on April 21, 2018.

The match was played at OC Rēzekne Mākslīgais Laukums (Rēzekne).