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Balvu vs Rēzekne FA — 1. Liga 2026

Balvu
Balvu
FT
1 – 14
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
8/4/20181. Liga1. Liga · Round 12Rugāju stadions (Rugāji)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Balvu28%
×Draw19%
Rēzekne FA53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balvu
1.87
Rēzekne FA
2.60

Rēzekne FA creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 87 away

creates per match

Balvu
0.68
Rēzekne FA
1.24

allows per match

Balvu
3.95
Rēzekne FA
3.06

finishing

Balvu+0.00on par
Rēzekne FA+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balvu ↓

Rēzekne FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Balvu or draw
47%
Balvu or Rēzekne FA
81%
Draw or Rēzekne FA
72%

Winning margin

Balvu wins by 2+
14%
Rēzekne FA wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Balvu 1+ goals
85%
Balvu 2+ goals
56%
Balvu 3+ goals
29%
Rēzekne FA 1+ goals
92%
Rēzekne FA 2+ goals
73%
Rēzekne FA 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Balvu (draw refunded)
34%
Rēzekne FA (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balvu at home — creates 0.68, concedes 3.95 · 19 matches

Rēzekne FA away — creates 1.24, concedes 3.06 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balvu attack 0.68 + Rēzekne FA defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 1.87

Rēzekne FA attack 1.24 + Balvu defence 3.95 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Balvu scores more
28%
level
19%
Rēzekne FA scores more
53%

Rēzekne FA at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rēzekne FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balvu vs Rēzekne FA

Rēzekne FA beat Balvu 14-1 in 1. Liga on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Rugāju stadions (Rugāji).