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Revilla vs Racing Santander II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Revilla
Revilla
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
12/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Revilla25%
×Draw25%
Racing Santander II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Revilla
1.07
Racing Santander II
1.61

Racing Santander II creates 50% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 27 away

creates per match

Revilla
1.30
Racing Santander II
1.56

allows per match

Revilla
1.67
Racing Santander II
0.85

finishing

Revilla+0.00on par
Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Revilla ↓

Racing Santander II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Revilla or draw
50%
Revilla or Racing Santander II
75%
Draw or Racing Santander II
75%

Winning margin

Revilla wins by 2+
9%
Racing Santander II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Revilla 1+ goals
66%
Revilla 2+ goals
29%
Revilla 3+ goals
9%
Racing Santander II 1+ goals
80%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
48%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Revilla (draw refunded)
34%
Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Revilla at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

Racing Santander II away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Revilla attack 1.30 + Racing Santander II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07

Racing Santander II attack 1.56 + Revilla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Revilla scores more
25%
level
25%
Racing Santander II scores more
50%

Racing Santander II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Revilla 2 – 2 Racing Santander II

Revilla and Racing Santander II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Revilla de Camargo.