Racing Santander II 0–1 Revilla: Result & Stats

Racing Santander II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Revilla

1/31/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Estadio La Albericia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Racing Santander II62%

×Draw21%

Revilla17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Santander IIExpected goals in this matchRevilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.97

Racing Santander II

2.04

Revilla

0.97

Racing Santander II creates 110% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 81 away

2.37

creates per match

1.04

0.89

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Racing Santander II

2.37

Revilla

1.04

allows per match

Racing Santander II

0.89

Revilla

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Revilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander II ↓

Revilla →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Racing Santander II or draw

83%

Racing Santander II or Revilla

79%

Draw or Revilla

38%

Winning margin

Racing Santander II wins by 2+

38%

Revilla wins by 2+

Team goals

Racing Santander II 1+ goals

87%

Racing Santander II 2+ goals

60%

Racing Santander II 3+ goals

33%

Revilla 1+ goals

62%

Revilla 2+ goals

25%

Revilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Racing Santander II (draw refunded)

78%

Revilla (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander II at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Revilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.72 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander II attack 2.37 + Revilla defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.04

Revilla attack 1.04 + Racing Santander II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Racing Santander II scores more

62%

level

21%

Revilla scores more

17%

Racing Santander II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Racing Santander II 0–1 Revilla

Revilla beat Racing Santander II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Albericia in Santander.

Racing Santander II vs Revilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Racing Santander II 0–1 Revilla