Reutlingen 0–2 Neckarsulmer SU: Result & Stats

Reutlingen

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Neckarsulmer SU

4/23/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 31Stadion an der Kreuzeiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Reutlingen47%

×Draw24%

Neckarsulmer SU29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReutlingenExpected goals in this matchNeckarsulmer SU

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.31

Reutlingen

1.72

Neckarsulmer SU

1.31

Reutlingen creates 31% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

1.68

creates per match

1.24

1.39

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Reutlingen

1.68

Neckarsulmer SU

1.24

allows per match

Reutlingen

1.39

Neckarsulmer SU

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reutlingen+0.00on par

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Reutlingen or draw

71%

Reutlingen or Neckarsulmer SU

76%

Draw or Neckarsulmer SU

53%

Winning margin

Reutlingen wins by 2+

25%

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Reutlingen 1+ goals

82%

Reutlingen 2+ goals

51%

Reutlingen 3+ goals

25%

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals

73%

Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals

38%

Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen (draw refunded)

62%

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen attack 1.68 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.72

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.24 + Reutlingen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Reutlingen scores more

47%

level

24%

Neckarsulmer SU scores more

29%

Reutlingen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Reutlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff