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Neckarsulmer SU vs Reutlingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Reutlingen
Reutlingen
C. Bellanave 46'
K. Founes 39'
4/11/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 25Sportpark Pichterich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Neckarsulmer SU42%
×Draw23%
Reutlingen35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Neckarsulmer SU
1.73
Reutlingen
1.57

Neckarsulmer SU creates 10% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 93 away

creates per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.47
Reutlingen
1.54

allows per match

Neckarsulmer SU
1.60
Reutlingen
1.98

finishing

Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par
Reutlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neckarsulmer SU ↓

Reutlingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Neckarsulmer SU or draw
65%
Neckarsulmer SU or Reutlingen
77%
Draw or Reutlingen
58%

Winning margin

Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
22%
Reutlingen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
82%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
52%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
25%
Reutlingen 1+ goals
79%
Reutlingen 2+ goals
46%
Reutlingen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
54%
Reutlingen (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neckarsulmer SU at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Reutlingen away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.47 + Reutlingen defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.73

Reutlingen attack 1.54 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Neckarsulmer SU scores more
42%
level
23%
Reutlingen scores more
35%

Neckarsulmer SU at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Neckarsulmer SU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
K. Founes
46'
C. Bellanave

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Neckarsulmer SU 1–1 Reutlingen

Neckarsulmer SU and Reutlingen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 11, 2023.

Goals: K. Founes (39'), C. Bellanave (46').

The match was played at Sportpark Pichterich in Neckarsulm.