Reutlingen 1–1 FV Ravensburg: Result & Stats

Reutlingen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FV Ravensburg

10/19/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 13Stadion an der Kreuzeiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Reutlingen45%

×Draw23%

FV Ravensburg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReutlingenExpected goals in this matchFV Ravensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.44

Reutlingen

1.75

FV Ravensburg

1.44

Reutlingen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 93 away

1.68

creates per match

1.49

1.39

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Reutlingen

1.68

FV Ravensburg

1.49

allows per match

Reutlingen

1.39

FV Ravensburg

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reutlingen+0.00on par

FV Ravensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reutlingen ↓

FV Ravensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Reutlingen or draw

68%

Reutlingen or FV Ravensburg

77%

Draw or FV Ravensburg

55%

Winning margin

Reutlingen wins by 2+

24%

FV Ravensburg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Reutlingen 1+ goals

83%

Reutlingen 2+ goals

52%

Reutlingen 3+ goals

25%

FV Ravensburg 1+ goals

76%

FV Ravensburg 2+ goals

42%

FV Ravensburg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Reutlingen (draw refunded)

59%

FV Ravensburg (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reutlingen at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

FV Ravensburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.81 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reutlingen attack 1.68 + FV Ravensburg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.75

FV Ravensburg attack 1.49 + Reutlingen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Reutlingen scores more

45%

level

23%

FV Ravensburg scores more

32%

Reutlingen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Reutlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff