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FV Ravensburg vs Reutlingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

FV Ravensburg
FV Ravensburg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Reutlingen
Reutlingen
3/9/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 22EBRA-Stadion im Wiesental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

FV Ravensburg44%
×Draw23%
Reutlingen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FV Ravensburg
1.82
Reutlingen
1.54

FV Ravensburg creates 18% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 93 away

creates per match

FV Ravensburg
1.67
Reutlingen
1.54

allows per match

FV Ravensburg
1.53
Reutlingen
1.98

finishing

FV Ravensburg+0.00on par
Reutlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Ravensburg ↓

Reutlingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FV Ravensburg or draw
67%
FV Ravensburg or Reutlingen
77%
Draw or Reutlingen
56%

Winning margin

FV Ravensburg wins by 2+
24%
Reutlingen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FV Ravensburg 1+ goals
84%
FV Ravensburg 2+ goals
54%
FV Ravensburg 3+ goals
27%
Reutlingen 1+ goals
79%
Reutlingen 2+ goals
45%
Reutlingen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FV Ravensburg (draw refunded)
57%
Reutlingen (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Ravensburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

Reutlingen away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Ravensburg attack 1.67 + Reutlingen defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.82

Reutlingen attack 1.54 + FV Ravensburg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FV Ravensburg scores more
44%
level
23%
Reutlingen scores more
33%

FV Ravensburg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FV Ravensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: FV Ravensburg 1–1 Reutlingen

FV Ravensburg and Reutlingen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at EBRA-Stadion im Wiesental in Ravensburg.