Reus 0–1 Deportivo La Coruna: Result & Stats

Reus

FT

0 – 1

Deportivo La Coruna

3/16/2019

Segunda División · Round 30Estadio Camp Nou Municipal (Reus)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Reus24%

×Draw31%

Deportivo La Coruna45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReusExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Coruna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

1.17

Reus

0.76

Deportivo La Coruna

1.17

Deportivo La Coruna creates 54% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 85 away

0.38

creates per match

1.15

1.19

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Reus

0.38

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

allows per match

Reus

1.19

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reus+0.00on par

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reus ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–117%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Reus or draw

55%

Reus or Deportivo La Coruna

69%

Draw or Deportivo La Coruna

76%

Winning margin

Reus wins by 2+

7%

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Reus 1+ goals

53%

Reus 2+ goals

18%

Reus 3+ goals

4%

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Reus (draw refunded)

34%

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reus at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reus attack 0.38 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.76

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Reus defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Reus scores more

24%

level

31%

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

45%

Deportivo La Coruna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff