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Deportivo La Coruna vs Reus — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Reus
Reus
10/27/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 11Estadio de Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna48%
×Draw29%
Reus22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruna
1.26
Reus
0.75

Deportivo La Coruna creates 68% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 21 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna
1.42
Reus
0.38

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna
1.11
Reus
1.10

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw
78%
Deportivo La Coruna or Reus
71%
Draw or Reus
52%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
22%
Reus wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
13%
Reus 1+ goals
53%
Reus 2+ goals
17%
Reus 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
69%
Reus (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Reus away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.42 + Reus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.26

Reus attack 0.38 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more
48%
level
29%
Reus scores more
22%

Deportivo La Coruna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportivo La Coruna 2–0 Reus

Deportivo La Coruna beat Reus 2-0 in Segunda División on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio de Riazor in La Coruna.