Reus 0–3 Castelldefels: Result & Stats

Reus

FT

0 – 3

Castelldefels

1/18/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 20Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Reus10%

×Draw19%

Castelldefels71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReusExpected goals in this matchCastelldefels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.62

2.04

Reus

0.62

Castelldefels

2.04

Castelldefels creates 229% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 74 away

0.00

creates per match

1.07

3.00

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Reus

0.00

Castelldefels

1.07

allows per match

Reus

3.00

Castelldefels

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reus+0.00on par

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reus ↓

Castelldefels →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–114%

0–215%

0–310%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Reus or draw

29%

Reus or Castelldefels

81%

Draw or Castelldefels

90%

Winning margin

Reus wins by 2+

2%

Castelldefels wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Reus 1+ goals

46%

Reus 2+ goals

13%

Reus 3+ goals

3%

Castelldefels 1+ goals

87%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

60%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Reus (draw refunded)

13%

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reus at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reus attack 0.00 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.62

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Reus defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Reus scores more

10%

level

19%

Castelldefels scores more

71%

Castelldefels at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Castelldefels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff