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Castelldefels vs Reus — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Castelldefels
Castelldefels
FT
3 – 0
Reus
Reus
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 1Estadio Els Canyars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Castelldefels70%
×Draw19%
Reus10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castelldefels
2.02
Reus
0.62

Castelldefels creates 226% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 18 away

creates per match

Castelldefels
1.03
Reus
0.00

allows per match

Castelldefels
1.24
Reus
3.00

finishing

Castelldefels+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castelldefels ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Castelldefels or draw
90%
Castelldefels or Reus
81%
Draw or Reus
30%

Winning margin

Castelldefels wins by 2+
45%
Reus wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Castelldefels 1+ goals
87%
Castelldefels 2+ goals
60%
Castelldefels 3+ goals
33%
Reus 1+ goals
46%
Reus 2+ goals
13%
Reus 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Castelldefels (draw refunded)
87%
Reus (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castelldefels at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

Reus away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castelldefels attack 1.03 + Reus defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.02

Reus attack 0.00 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Castelldefels scores more
70%
level
19%
Reus scores more
10%

Castelldefels at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Castelldefels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Castelldefels 3–0 Reus

Castelldefels beat Reus 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Els Canyars in Castelldefels.