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Reus vs Alcorcon — Segunda División 2018

Reus
Reus
FT
0 – 1
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
4/27/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 36Estadio Camp Nou Municipal (Reus)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Reus29%
×Draw32%
Alcorcon39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reus
0.85
Alcorcon
1.04

Alcorcon creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 105 away

creates per match

Reus
0.38
Alcorcon
0.90

allows per match

Reus
1.19
Alcorcon
1.33

finishing

Reus+0.00on par
Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reus ↓

Alcorcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Reus or draw
61%
Reus or Alcorcon
68%
Draw or Alcorcon
71%

Winning margin

Reus wins by 2+
10%
Alcorcon wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Reus 1+ goals
57%
Reus 2+ goals
21%
Reus 3+ goals
5%
Alcorcon 1+ goals
65%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
28%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Reus (draw refunded)
43%
Alcorcon (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reus at home — creates 0.38, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.33 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reus attack 0.38 + Alcorcon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.85

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Reus defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Reus scores more
29%
level
32%
Alcorcon scores more
39%

Alcorcon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Reus 0 – 1 Alcorcon

Alcorcon beat Reus 1-0 in Segunda División on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Camp Nou Municipal (Reus).