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Alcorcon vs Reus — Segunda División 2018

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Reus
Reus
12/9/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 17Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Alcorcon41%
×Draw33%
Reus26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.00
Reus
0.74

Alcorcon creates 35% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 21 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
0.90
Reus
0.38

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.10
Reus
1.10

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
74%
Alcorcon or Reus
67%
Draw or Reus
59%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
16%
Reus wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
63%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
26%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
8%
Reus 1+ goals
52%
Reus 2+ goals
17%
Reus 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
61%
Reus (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 105 matches

Reus away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Reus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Reus attack 0.38 + Alcorcon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Alcorcon scores more
41%
level
33%
Reus scores more
26%

Alcorcon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Alcorcon 0–1 Reus

Reus beat Alcorcon 1-0 in Segunda División on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Santo Domingo in Alcorcon.