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Retz vs Haitzendorf — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Retz
Retz
FT
4 – 0
Haitzendorf
Haitzendorf
9/24/2022Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 8Sportplatz Retz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Retz57%
×Draw22%
Haitzendorf21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Retz
1.92
Haitzendorf
1.07

Retz creates 79% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 29 away

creates per match

Retz
2.00
Haitzendorf
1.21

allows per match

Retz
0.93
Haitzendorf
1.83

finishing

Retz+0.00on par
Haitzendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Retz ↓

Haitzendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Retz or draw
79%
Retz or Haitzendorf
78%
Draw or Haitzendorf
43%

Winning margin

Retz wins by 2+
33%
Haitzendorf wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Retz 1+ goals
85%
Retz 2+ goals
57%
Retz 3+ goals
30%
Haitzendorf 1+ goals
66%
Haitzendorf 2+ goals
29%
Haitzendorf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Retz (draw refunded)
73%
Haitzendorf (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Retz at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.93 · 70 matches

Haitzendorf away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Retz attack 2.00 + Haitzendorf defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Haitzendorf attack 1.21 + Retz defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Retz scores more
57%
level
22%
Haitzendorf scores more
21%

Retz at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Retz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: Retz 4–0 Haitzendorf

Retz beat Haitzendorf 4-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Retz in Retz.