Haitzendorf 1–2 Retz: Result & Stats

Haitzendorf

FT

1 – 2

Retz

3/17/2024

Landesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 17Sportplatz Haitzendorf SV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Haitzendorf37%

×Draw24%

Retz38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaitzendorfExpected goals in this matchRetz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.51

Haitzendorf

1.49

Retz

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 70 away

1.86

creates per match

1.43

1.59

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Haitzendorf

1.86

Retz

1.43

allows per match

Haitzendorf

1.59

Retz

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haitzendorf+0.00on par

Retz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haitzendorf ↓

Retz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Haitzendorf or draw

62%

Haitzendorf or Retz

76%

Draw or Retz

63%

Winning margin

Haitzendorf wins by 2+

18%

Retz wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Haitzendorf 1+ goals

77%

Haitzendorf 2+ goals

44%

Haitzendorf 3+ goals

19%

Retz 1+ goals

78%

Retz 2+ goals

44%

Retz 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Haitzendorf (draw refunded)

49%

Retz (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haitzendorf at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

Retz away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.11 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haitzendorf attack 1.86 + Retz defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.49

Retz attack 1.43 + Haitzendorf defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Haitzendorf scores more

37%

level

24%

Retz scores more

38%

Retz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Retz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff