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Resovia Rzeszów vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — I Liga 2018

Resovia Rzeszów
Resovia Rzeszów
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
7/29/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 3Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów40%
×Draw29%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Resovia Rzeszów
1.21
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.05

Resovia Rzeszów creates 15% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 85 away

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.03
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.93

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.18
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.40

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw
68%
Resovia Rzeszów or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
71%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
60%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+
17%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals
70%
Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals
34%
Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals
12%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
65%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
28%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)
56%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.40 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.03 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 0.93 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more
40%
level
29%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
32%

Resovia Rzeszów at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Resovia Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Resovia Rzeszów vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz

Resovia Rzeszów and Sandecja Nowy Sącz drew 0-0 in I Liga on July 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.