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Resovia Rzeszów vs Miedz Legnica — I Liga 2018

Resovia Rzeszów
Resovia Rzeszów
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
5/4/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 31Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Resovia Rzeszów33%
×Draw28%
Miedz Legnica39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Resovia Rzeszów
1.10
Miedz Legnica
1.21

Miedz Legnica creates 10% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 105 away

creates per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.03
Miedz Legnica
1.23

allows per match

Resovia Rzeszów
1.18
Miedz Legnica
1.18

finishing

Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par
Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Resovia Rzeszów ↓

Miedz Legnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Resovia Rzeszów or draw
61%
Resovia Rzeszów or Miedz Legnica
72%
Draw or Miedz Legnica
67%

Winning margin

Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+
13%
Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals
67%
Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals
30%
Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals
10%
Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
70%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
34%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)
46%
Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Resovia Rzeszów at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.03 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Miedz Legnica attack 1.23 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Resovia Rzeszów scores more
33%
level
28%
Miedz Legnica scores more
39%

Miedz Legnica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Resovia Rzeszów vs Miedz Legnica

Resovia Rzeszów and Miedz Legnica drew 1-1 in I Liga on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.