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Miedz Legnica vs Resovia Rzeszów — I Liga 2018

Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Resovia Rzeszów
Resovia Rzeszów
11/3/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 14Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Miedz Legnica51%
×Draw24%
Resovia Rzeszów25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedz Legnica
1.76
Resovia Rzeszów
1.17

Miedz Legnica creates 50% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 68 away

creates per match

Miedz Legnica
1.83
Resovia Rzeszów
1.19

allows per match

Miedz Legnica
1.15
Resovia Rzeszów
1.69

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par
Resovia Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Resovia Rzeszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw
75%
Miedz Legnica or Resovia Rzeszów
76%
Draw or Resovia Rzeszów
49%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
28%
Resovia Rzeszów wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
83%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
52%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
26%
Resovia Rzeszów 1+ goals
69%
Resovia Rzeszów 2+ goals
33%
Resovia Rzeszów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
67%
Resovia Rzeszów (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 102 matches

Resovia Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.83 + Resovia Rzeszów defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.76

Resovia Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more
51%
level
24%
Resovia Rzeszów scores more
25%

Miedz Legnica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miedz Legnica vs Resovia Rzeszów

Resovia Rzeszów beat Miedz Legnica 2-1 in I Liga on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Legnica.